Question

Does anyone want to buy a weather forecaster? With Liam Fox overseeing（监管）the Ministry of Defence and promising to make cuts “cruelly and without mercy”, it is becoming ever harder to believe our national forecasting service will survive much beyond this glorious - dare I say it, - summer．

The trouble is, the Met Office（英国气象局） is a soft target．We are more sceptical about scientists’ ability to predict the weather than we are about an octopus’s （章鱼）ability to predict the outcome of a football match．This is largely to do with our own fear of complexity．

Few of us get enough information to judge the quality of the forecast．As I write, one forecast says the overview for the day is “a good scattering of showers mixed in with brighter weather for many of us”．Snow or hail would be a shock; beyond that, the words are fairly meaningless．

But, in fact, we don't want our forecasters to be more specific．The most scientifically accurate statements that a forecaster can make involve probabilities, but probabilities leave us in difficulty．A study in the United States, for example, showed that most people thought “a 50 percent chance of rain” meant that the forecasters hadn't a clue whether it would rain or not．

What it really means is that, in a given set of conditions, it rains half of the time．But who has time to think about when Newsnight is about to start? It's far easier just to let something concrete settle in our minds and, when the next day rolls around and it doesn't happen, complain that the forecast was wrong．But the World Meteorological Organisation thinks we have something worth holding on to: it consistently rates the Met Office as one of the world's top two （Japan is also blessed with accurate forecasters）．

Perhaps that praise alone should make us think twice about selling off the Met Office．To me, however, there is an even more convincing reason．

For most of us, the weather doesn't matter much - generally, we do what we do, come rain or shine．Accurately forecasting and monitoring climate change, on the other hand matters to everybody．The idea of making that function a slave to market forces sends a cold front down my back．

1．The underlined words “a soft target” mean that the Met Office is_________________．

      A．deliberately chosen to survive the summer．

      B．easily chosen to be done away with．

      C．difficultly chosen to continue the forecasts．

      D．roughly chosen to be bought．

2．Which of the following statements is true according to the passage?

      A．It is easy to get enough information to judge the quality of the forecast．

      B．The octopus’s prediction of a football match is more accurate than that of the weather．

      C．50 percent chance of climate change leaves people in trouble in their life．

      D．Japan is only the world’s top country in accurate forecasts．

3．The forecasts have received a number of complaints about _______________．

      A．the accuracy of the weather forecasts

      B．the management of the weather bureau（局）

      C．the organization of the weather agencies．

      D．the timing of the weather forecasts．

4．The author thinks that selling off the Met Office is ____________．

      A．unreasonable                          B．acceptable

      C．unavoidable                           D．legal

Answer 1

BCAA